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Robert Hesler
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Robert Hesler
Neural Network Designer
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Neural Network Trading systems
Stock-Optimizer… Stock Market Allocation
Short Term Stock Selector… Swing Trading
The Weekly Stock Selector… Fundamental Picks
Set Better Limit Orders... Stock Utility

4 Neural Network Powered Systems - 1 price
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What is a Neural Network?


Optimized Stock Allocation via S&P 500 Market Timing

Each evening our neural network provides optimized stock allocation advice tailored specifically for you. Have you ever had the feeling that the S&P 500 was going to drop and maybe you should lighten up on your investments? Or perhaps you've sensed the S&P 500 about to explode and wondered if you should add to your holdings. With Stock-Optimizer on your side you no longer need worry or guess about doing the right thing.

It doesn't matter if you use Value Line, Zack's, Investor's Business Daily, The Motley Fool, Cramer's or your favorite broker's advice. Or perhaps you do your own evaluation using Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Qualitative Analysis, Value Investing, Growth Investing, GARP Investing, Income Investing, CANSLIM, Dogs of the Dow or some other method. It doesn't matter how you chose your stock picks. Stock-Optimizer can help improve your overall annual performance. Stock-Optimizer will show you how to maximize returns in up markets and minimize losses in down markets. Aggressive investors can actually make money in down markets when the S&P 500 is tanking by going net short.

BENEFITS: Stock-Optimizer can increase your performance by up to 154% per year. For example, if your favorite stock picking service or system traditionally returns 14% annually, it can increase that return by 154% bringing it to 35.6%, 14% + (1.54 x 14%) = 35.6%.

REQUIREMENTS: Stock-Optimizer isn't for everyone. You will need to access this website each evening to find out what action to take the next day. The Stock-Optimizer recommendation will usually require you to reallocate funds within your portfolio two to four times a week.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

Stock-Optimizer is powered by a proprietary neural network. It evaluates nine market indicators each evening. Measured over twenty years, each of these nine indicators has a relatively high correlation to S&P 500 change over the next seven market days. Quite frankly these indicators are the heart and soul of the system. The table below briefly describes each and also shows you today's indicator values. Be sure and click the link below, it provides deep insight into why these indicators actually work.

Market Indicator Insight

Indicators
Indicators
Market Date Indicator 20 Yr Range Today's Value Indicator Description
5/8/2008 Month N/A May Take advantage of the old saying "Sell in May and go away".
5/8/2008 Date N/A 8th Mutual fund fact… they do a lot of buying at the end of the month.
5/8/2008 Weekday N/A Thu Have you ever noticed how Friday is often the weakest day of the week?
5/8/2008 TRIN function N/A Up Involves volume of Advancing and Declining issues.
5/8/2008 T10-14 -98.74 to 78.01 29.67 A 40 market day overbought/oversold indicator.
5/8/2008 T11-15 -65.47 to 49.55 5.07 A 200 market day overbought/oversold indicator.
5/8/2008 T12-16 function -.48 to 5.85 0.03 A proprietary 40 market day overbought/oversold indicator.
5/8/2008 C/C7 -28.43 to 13.86 0.48 Seven day S&P 500 Momentum
5/8/2008 C/C1 -20.47 to 9.1 0.37 One day S&P 500 Momentum

The neural network scores the above set of inputs each night and predicts how the S&P 500 will perform over the next seven market days. The prediction is either 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.

1... market expected to fall over the next 7 market days
2... market expected to slightly decline over the next 7 market days
3... market mostly neutral with very slight upward bias over the next 7 market days
4... market expected to move up slightly over the next 7 market days
5... market expected to rise over the next 7 market days

HOW DO YOU TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE NEURAL NETWORK PREDICTION?

You access the Stock-Optimizer nightly recommendation and then adjust your market allocation the next day. For example, if tonight’s prediction is #1 and you are currently 100% invested, Stock-Optimizer will tell you to sell off part of your holdings. Conversely, if tonight's prediction is a #5 and you are currently 100% invested it might be prudent to use a little margin and add to your current positions. Regardless of your current stock holdings, Stock-Optimizer tells you exactly what to do the next day in order to optimize your overall results over the next seven market days.

Each investor has different expectations and risk tolerance levels. Stock-Optimizer takes this into account. The specific advice Stock-Optimizer gives you each evening will depend on your goals and risk tolerance level. It can accommodate both wild risk takers and those of you who are in your retirement years.

Historical Results Summary

Stock-Optimizer's neural network was trained on market data beginning on 1/1/1987 and ending 10/18/2006. Its first real time prediction was made on 10/19/2006. The historical record tables below illustrate the real time accuracy of Stock-Optimizer predictions since 10/19/2006. Each evening one additional prediction record is added to the tables. A complete history of all individual predictions are maintained on the website for your inspection.

Please note, anything can and will happen with any single prediction. Some #5 predictions will be bad; the S&P 500 will fall over the next seven market days. The neural network certainly isn't right all the time. Given enough time, the Average 7 Day Prediction Result in the table directly below should meet its Expectation. However, until we reach 500 Occurrences wide variation from Expectation will most likely be the case. For example, if you flip a coin ten times you might well get 7 heads and 3 tails. It would be wrong to assume that heads comes up 70% of the time. If you flip it a thousand times heads will come up very close to 50% of the time - it's a statistical thing.

Results by Prediction
Results by Prediction
Neural Network Prediction Occurrences Expectation Average 7 Day Prediction Result
5 85 very positive 0.535%
4 108 positive -0.104%
3 131 slight positive 0.02%
2 36 negative -0.304%
1 22 very negative -0.116%

Results by Investor Profile
Results by Investor Profile
Cycles Complete Avg 7 Day S&P 500 Result Annualized S&P Result Investor Profile Avg Investment Level Avg 7 Day Cycle Profile Result Annualized Profile Result
382 0.061% 2.2% Gigantic Risk 108.8% 0.244% 8.8%
382 0.061% 2.2% High Risk 105.9% 0.196% 7.1%
382 0.061% 2.2% Tangible Risk 97.8% 0.159% 5.7%
382 0.061% 2.2% Average Risk 82.7% 0.126% 4.5%
382 0.061% 2.2% Low Risk 69.7% 0.109% 3.9%